[cajobportal Insights] Using Bayes’ theorem to eliminate the dead weight in your life

Good Afternoon

Was reading an article online and the concepts it talked about were just so amazing

The quantum happiness/sadness of our life is in most cases determined by the people who surround us – be it the supportive friend who’s always there to bring a smile on our face or the negative cynic who chips away at our self esteem. So we can be happier if we can eliminate the latter ones from our lives

The moot question is how to identify them?

By applying Bayes’ theorem, we can determine probability of an event?

Bayes’ rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief.

So can we use data heuristics to find the odds of someone continuing to drag you down?

Say, in cajobportal.com, can I identify the client who appears every 3 months or so, releases a JD, collects a lot of good CVs and then disappears, oblivious to the numerous follow up mails. Based on past probability, can I forecast the recurrence of such behavior and thus be careful in the future

Using Bayes theorem and forcing your mind to quantify the future value of a relationship, you can decide who is the dead weight in your life, be it personal or professional

Say, a friend who irks who by her inability to keep her mouth shut and thus disclosing all your secrets but simultaneously is the most caring friend in the world, making you feel so special on your birthdays, anniversaries and life events

If you go to a friendship casino and place your money on the roulette wheel, where would you put your money – on the bet that she will again disclose you secrets to an outsider

Using a rough Bayesian model in our heads, we’re forcing ourselves to quantify what “good” is and what “bad” is. How good? How bad? How likely? How unlikely?

And you look at an issue from multiple angles – Was the friend trying to help you genuinely ? Was she sorry

Lets say, in the above case, the HR is genuine and wants to recruit through you, but is helpless because of cost-cutting, maybe positions get put on hold or maybe there is a preferred vendor who is connected to the powerful ones?

Can you constantly update all information available and update your mathematical model?

If you do that, you will be saved from the pain of constantly questioning why it happens to you, feeling upset and having heartburns

Head to your mental casino and place the bet, quantifying all the subjective information in your head that is cluttered and hard to articulate. Zoom past the endless “but maybes” and have a clear path forward to tackle the probable future.

It may make sense to give him the benefit of the doubt. It may also be reasonable to avoid him as much as possible.

When you figure out how much you would wager on the potential outcomes, you’ll know what to do.